Because of my friendship with Sarah Palin I have been receiving more interviews than usual. Most I have turned down because I do not want to “feed the beast” or in any way have someone think I am trading on that friendship. I also am careful because even though everybody wants to know whether she will run for president in 2012, the truth is I don’t know what she plans. However, it is my estimation that she will not. One of the few interviews I have given aired on PBS last week. It is a short appearance, but here it is:

If you didn’t manage to see my appearance on “Hardball with Chris Matthews” yesterday evening, the video is here. We talked about Sarah Palin’s new book and what she might or might not do in 2012. Enjoy:

Joe Scarborough invited me on “Morning Joe” today to talk about the Republican Party and what the election in New York’s 23 congressional district meant (it wasn’t about conservatives vs. moderates) and a subject I have written about before, President Obama’s troubling indecision in Afghanistan, among other topics. Here is the video in case you missed it:

Yesterday, I told The Politico about Bob McDonnell’s victory in Virginia, “I don’t think it’s so much a referendum on Obama’s policies as it is a reflection on us having a really, really good candidate.” I wanted to expand on this.

First of all, back in May, I said about Bob McDonnell:

No one outside of Virginia knows him yet, but he’s the best GOP candidate for governor in many years. He is also able to build a center-right majority. As such, he will win the 2009 race, and this will embolden others to run and start the way back for the GOP. If you have any doubts, look back at 1993 when after a 1992 drubbing for the GOP, the election of Allen and Whitman paved the way for takeover of Congress in 1994. Bob’s victory will propel him to become one of the party’s biggest new stars.

Not only did Bob win, but he won with the largest majority that any Republican has achieved in the history of Virginia. He led the party to pick up five seats in the House of Delegates. And Republicans swept the constitutional offices for only the second time in the history of the state. According to exit polls, Bob won every age group, and he won independents 2-1.

How did McDonnell do this? The exit polls made it clear what the people of Virginia were concerned about: jobs.  Eighty-five percent of the electorate was “worried about economic conditions” and 53% were very worried. Bob carried these 63%-36% and 77%-23% respectively.

In the end, the people of Virginia had a serious concern – the economy, which nearly everyone is worried about – and McDonnell connected this concern to his policy prescriptions. Reviewing his website shows some of the most detailed policy proposals I have ever seen in a non-presidential campaign.

At the same time, he was attacked viciously and unfairly for a paper that he wrote in graduate school. But Bob knew that the people of Virginia weren’t interested in divisive social politics. Instead he kept discipline and kept the focus on what the people wanted to hear about, not what his opponent wanted him to talk about.

These are signs of a very talented leader: determination, discipline, policy expertise, awareness of the voters’ desires and needs, and an ability to connect with them.

I was on MSNBC this afternoon with Andrea Mitchell talking about my support for Doug Hoffman and why the Republican Party still needs Olympia Snowe just as it needs Sarah Palin. Hope you enjoy:

I have enjoyed the recent top ten lists for Republican leaders, Senate races, and the like published by smart observers like Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post and have occasionally ventured forth my own. Most of us who pay any attention to politics have a pretty good sense of the most influential Republican leaders today; and they include impressive people such as Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour, McConnell, Boehner, Gingrich, Palin, and others.

Less visible, however, and in some ways more intriguing to me are identifying those less visible figures who will emerge over the next five to ten years as leaders in the House, Senate, state capitols, and Presidential primaries. Here is my crack at the top ten, most under 50 and a few just past that age.

There are undoubtedly others that should be included, but whom I haven’t had the opportunity to meet, and thus haven’t assessed.  Here are the ones I have:

1. Bob McDonnell. I predicted many months ago that Bob would be the next Governor of Virginia and that prediction looks very good now. For that reason he is included near the top of the most influential Republicans for the present as well as the future. He has been an enormously effective candidate and I believe will be elected next week. While he will be a great Governor for my home state, his national influence will soar as the first symbol of a Republican comeback and as an example of how to run a model and winning campaign.
2. Mark Kirk. Mark is the moderate, progressive, and effective young Congressman from Illinois who should be elected to Obama’s old Senate seat in November 2010. Illinois has been a blue state for a number of years and has a pronounced registration advantage in favor of Democrats. Because he will capture the Obama seat in a blue state, and because his voice is both persuasive and moderate, he will emerge as an influential consensus builder in the U.S. Senate.
3. Eric Cantor. As the #2 Republican in the House and a master of policy, Eric has been a strong and sensible voice for the center-right arguments that represent the Republican Party and the majority of Americans. He will have an increasingly important role in shaping the Republican agenda for many years.
4. Scott Walker. The 41 year old Milwaukee County Executive has proven he knows how to contain costs, balance budgets, and win elections. In 2008, he won re-election with 59%, in a county Obama won by more than 60%. I believe he will be elected Governor of Wisconsin in November 2010 and represent the new wave of conservative leadership that knows how to bring needed services to the people by providing incentives and ingenuity vs. big spending.
5. Paul Ryan. Another young man from Wisconsin, who at 39 is ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee. He has mastery of budgeting and economic issues and learned his trade at the foot of the late Jack Kemp, perhaps the most influential Republican of our era who never became President. Paul is smart, charismatic, and dedicated and can hold any office he sets his mind to.
6. Rob Portman. Rob has a tough challenge on winning the Ohio Senate race as the State has been tilting blue lately. However, he’s just too good to fail. As a former Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and Special Trade Representative, he has a terrific background to blend with his intellect and charm. He will immediately emerge as a leading voice in the Senate and in the future will be on everyone’s list for the big one or number two.
7. Bobby Jindal. Bobby has proven himself at everything he has done, consistently taking on and meeting great challenges. He is developing into an articulate and charismatic leader whose future holds no bounds. He is a fine Governor for Louisiana and will continue to be a major policy voice in the Republican Party.
8. Meg Whitman. Meg has a long road ahead to first win the primary in California and then defeat Jerry Brown to become Governor. Then, of course, she will have the tough challenge of fixing California. However, she is enormously talented and competent, and I believe she will win. If so, she will vault to number one overall, as the most influential and sought after leader in the Republican Party.
9. Kelly Ayotte. The young and proven Attorney General of New Hampshire is poised to win this Senate seat next year. She has the friendly and reasonable comportment of an Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins but is more center right in her philosophy and thus better positioned for future leadership.
10. Chris Christie. I am hopeful Chris will be elected Governor of New Jersey next week. However, his victory will be more a referendum on Jon Corzines’s out of control spending, high taxes and ineffective governance, all awash in a sea of corruption in the NJ Democrat Party. Nevertheless, a victory in this blue state will give Chris a commanding platform.

There are three others who should be on the list, but I’m not sure where or how to place them:

• Sarah Palin. Charismatic, effective, and beloved by so many in the Republican Party. Since I know her reasonably well and like her a lot, people always ask me about her future plans. The answer is I have no idea, and my sense is she hasn’t ruled anything out and is truly undecided. Maybe her book next month will provide some clues.
• Marco Rubio. We desperately need in our own party a young Hispanic leader. We cannot again be a majority party without better understanding and appealing to minorities, especially Hispanics. As a former speaker of the House in Florida, Mark is an attractive and charismatic, conservative voice. The problem is he has nowhere to go right now. He is unlikely to defeat Charlie Crist in the Florida primary for the U.S. Senate but could be poised to win the subsequent Senate contest against Bill Nelson.
• Jon Huntsman, Jr. Jon has gone far away and so is out of mind. However, he was an effective deputy special trade representative, and effective Ambassador to Singapore, and a super Governor of Utah. Plus, he has the charm, dedication, financial resources, and great family to ensure he will be back and be a powerful player on the national stage.

There you have it–please let me know your reactions to these names and help me evolve my thinking.

Last year, as national finance chairman for John McCain’s Presidential campaign, I strongly supported my friend Sen. McCain, but have kept an open-mind about President Obama’s administration, which you can see in the “100 Days Scorecard” posted here back in April. Don’t get me wrong, it was not a glowing assessment. In particular, I gave him a “D” on the Economy, and his recent decision to levy a tariff on Chinese tires makes me all the more certain this was fair. But I also gave him a “B+” on foreign policy, writing at the time:

“He’s had the good judgment to rely on our distinguished generals and not to withdraw prematurely from Iraq. The build-up in Afghanistan is badly needed, but probably not enough.” Also, in that time frame he stated that Afghanistan was a war of necessity.

I would not rate his judgment so highly today.

While the President took a commendable approach to Afghanistan at the outset, his uncertain response to Gen. McChrystal’s request for additional troops is troubling. Gen. McChrystal has made it very clear that success in Afghanistan depends on a significant increase in forces, and yet the New York Times reports that the White House is divided against itself on this very issue.

Reportedly, the President is considering alternatives, among these an option raised by Joe Biden to withdraw from the country and concentrate on striking Taliban targets from the air only. Let us not forget that this is not far off John Murtha’s plan for Iraq, which the President supported as senator. Further adding to the judgment question, then Sen. Obama opposed President Bush’s successful surge policy in Iraq while Sen. McCain strongly supported it.

The President seems to be moving in questionable direction in other areas of foreign policy as well, including his decision to block a U.S. missile shield base in the Czech Republic and Poland, appeasing the undemocratic leadership in Russia. That this comes at the same time new revelations about Iran’s very serious nuclear program raise ever more concern.

The President’s decision to give Attorney General Eric Holder a free hand to pursue criminal investigations against CIA and other U.S. personnel who dealt with terrorists and other highly dangerous detainees is one more mistake in the making. His own CIA Director as well as seven former CIA directors serving under both Republican and Democrat administrations have publicly opposed this decision, and yet the President allows the investigation to proceed despite his earlier statements against such a move. Has it occurred to him that these people deserve our heartfelt gratitude for protecting us from another terror attack these past eight years?

My sense is that these decisions are driven in part by a Democratic base that is divided about what to do in Afghanistan, but adamant about holding the Bush administration responsible for Abu Ghraib and anything else they can. The same goes for the trade war with China. American car companies and tire manufacturers did not want it, but the United Auto Workers did. Labor is still a powerful force in Democrat circles, even if only there. Why else create these international headaches and penalize auto companies at such a dangerous time? The President’s poll numbers have been falling as his health care plans have proved unpopular, and he is battening down the hatches ahead of a midterm election that could be very bad for his party. I fear President Obama is rejecting his sounder judgment in favor of domestic political considerations.

Perhaps you remember, last summer Sen. Barack Obama suggesting that his lack of executive experience was not a matter for concern in foreign policy because, he said, his judgment was much better than that of his opponents. In fact, he used both words in an interview with ABC News during the primary campaign. Specifically, the future President said: “One thing I’m very confident about is my judgment in foreign policy. … The notion that somehow from Washington you get this vast foreign policy experience is illusory.”

It was apparent to those of us who supported John McCain that Obama had no choice but to downplay the value of foreign policy experience, where no one doubted that Sen. McCain had the overwhelming advantage and where Sen. Obama simply elevated the judgment argument and asserted that his judgment was the better. To her credit, Hillary Clinton tried to make this very point in her “3 am call” ad. He guessed correctly that the mainstream media would not dwell greatly on whether this was actually true. If they had, they would realize that this was a question they could not answer, because Obama had very little experience where he could demonstrate it.

Those of us who questioned whether Senator Obama was ready to be President Obama are finding that our concerns were warranted. Putting the U.S. back on the right track will take an enormous effort. Hopefully the President will start showing some of that judgment he’s told us about. If he doesn’t, independents will continue to desert him, and the American people may well decide he does not deserve a second term.

If you missed me on CNBC this week, here are a few clips from my guest hosting appearance on Thursday morning. We talked about the President’s health care plans and the current state of the economy. I hope you enjoy.

Clip 1:
Clip 2:
Clip 3:

In my post earlier this week, I discussed the meeting of the RGA’s Executive Roundtable and visit to Aspen Institute on August 3-4. I’ll continue here.

On August 7 and 8, I was honored to attend and speak at the Republican Governor’s Association 2010 Candidate Forum in Sun Valley, Idaho.  It was essentially a training forum for gubernatorial candidates.  More than 25 candidates attended, and speakers and panelists included Newt Gingrich, Governors Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Sonny Perdue, Jeb Bush, Linda Lingle, John Engler, and myself (not a governor, of course).  Idaho Governor Butch Otter, who also spoke, was our gracious host.

In my many years in politics, this was the best-organized and most professional political and policy event I have ever attended. The very subject matter –- focusing on a positive center-right agenda that would truly address the problems of the states and help people and communities –- was extraordinarily inspiring.

Newt pretty well laid out the themes of the conference in his opening night discussion about what our current and upcoming candidates need to do:

1. Tell voters what you are for, why you are for it, and how it helps people and communities.
2. Remember that as a candidate and governor, you are the leader of the state and need to be visionary and is a value setter.
3. As governor (and as a candidate) recruit top talent to fill important positions – not just those people you know.
4. Keep focus on the truly important vs. the urgent: the urgent too often overtakes the important, to the detriment of key goals of government.

Newt, Barbour, Engler, Bush, Perdue, and Lingle followed with superb presentations and discussions, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, “focused on building campaigns based on fiscal conservatism, effective governance and how to answer Democrat initiatives on health care; as well as bailouts of Wall Street and the auto industry.”

Perhaps most inspiring was the quality and excellence of the candidates.  All were impressive and gave me great confidence in Republican prospects in the 37 gubernatorial races coming up in 2010.  To mention a few in key states:

• Scott Walker is the 41-year-old three-term County Executive for Milwaukee County, and he has illustrated what it takes to win in a blue county, and a media market that contains 42% of all Wisconsin voters.  He has governed from the center and cut county government debt by 10%, reduced county workforce by over 20%, authorized eight budgets without increasing the property tax, and managed a small surplus despite the falling economy in 2008.  He won re-election in 2008 with 59% of the vote in a county where Obama received 67% of the vote in 2008.
• Mary Fallin, a member of Congress who is our candidate in Oklahoma and whose consistent center-right, forward looking agenda will make her Oklahoma’s next Governor.
• Bill McCollum, former Congressman and current Attorney General of Florida has a record of excellence in both his former and current post.  The voters of Florida seem to agree – witness his victory as Attorney General, and his lead in the polls.
• Charlie Baker, who has been a highly successful health care executive with prior experience in state government, is our candidate in Massachusetts.  I believe he will follow in the footsteps of Bill Weld and Mitt Romney and become the next red governor in this bluest of blue states.

There were many other interesting and excellent candidates, but let me stop here. There will be much time to discuss them, and I look forward to writing more soon. This event and the whole week of August 3 to 8 increased my enthusiasm for supporting our gubernatorial candidates in 2009 and 2010, and reinforced my conviction that these are the men and women who will lead us back to a majority party.

I have written before of the paramount importance of governors in providing leadership to the Republican Party and to our country. One my joys this year has been to work closely with Governors Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty in my role as Chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association Executive Roundtable.

My view is that we are poised to win the two gubernatorial races this year with Bob McDonnell capturing Virginia and Chris Christie becoming governor of New Jersey.  Yes, there is a lot of time between now and Election Day, but I feel good about both of these key races.  Just as in 1993, with victories for George Allen and Christie Todd Whitman in these states, this will mark a turning point for the Republicans’ march back to a majority center-right party.

Keep in mind, the quality of candidates really matters, and over 50% of newly elected members of Congress and the Senate in 1994 made the decision to run after being emboldened by the Allen and Whitman wins.

Four days during early August reaffirmed my conviction that the revival of the Republican Party will be led by our governors and gubernatorial candidates. In this post, I will address the first of two separate events.

On August 3 and 4, Governors Barbour, Pawlenty, and Rick Perry along with a strong group of Roundtable members attended the annual Aspen Institute conference.  It was an invigorating two days, and we were all particularly impressed by the forward-looking, problem-solving approach of the governors.  We started with Haley speaking on energy to a bipartisan audience at the Aspen Institute.  He was strong, articulate, balanced, and his speech was well-received.  That evening, we had a buffet reception at our home, highlighted by insightful remarks from Tim Pawlenty.

The next day we had panel discussions with Haley and former governor and HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt leading health care and Gov. Perry leading the discussion on reviewing our economy and creating jobs. Rick also spoke that night at a dinner hosted by Roundtable members Rick and Erica Horvitz, who hosted a wonderful Western dinner at their beautiful Wildcat Ranch.

It was an opportunity to review how far we have come this cycle. As an organization, we have recruited over 225 top executives, entrepreneurs, and other people of great merit who contribute $25,000 per year to the RGA and attend a series of policy oriented sessions with our governors.  This means that over the two year election cycle leading to 2010, the RGA has another $11million to pump into key races, and it is growing.

This entire event reminded me why I love politics.  No, it didn’t have the grassroots spontaneity of the incredibly impactful Tea Party movement, but  it was a committed group of people enjoying in deeply substantive discussions of the key problems facing our country, enjoying a camaraderie in a setting of environmental beauty, and getting to know our political leaders in an up close and personal way.

In my next post, I’ll talk about our Candidate Forum the following weekend.